Memorial Day, 2020

I have forgotten where I discovered this picture. It was many years ago. I do not know who these men are or when and where this picture was taken. (If you know, please drop me a line.) I’ve copies of it on virtually every chunk of technology I own that’s capable of showing pictures as a frequent reminder and image for contemplation. It is rich in meaning in many different ways.

Judging by the amount of surrounding destruction, I’d guess these men are deep into Europe, perhaps even Germany. The uniforms suggest Spring, perhaps. Not warm enough for Summer, not cold enough for Winter. Perhaps they are toasting VE day, perhaps having survived the liberation of yet another city, perhaps having survived a recent battle, or maybe just celebrating being alive in the moment.

The soldier on the left appears to have what looks like a Thompson submachine gun on his lap, suggesting things in the area are not as casual as the wine bottle and raised glasses might suggest.

To all who have served us in the defense of Freedom and Liberty: My sincere and deep appreciation and most humble thanks.

Thinking Agile about the Pandemic

[Note: The fact that the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic is on everyone’s mind has given me an opportunity to expand the scope of topics I may consider on The Agile Fieldbook. Specifically, relating current events to Agile and systems thinking.]

 

I’ve been thinking a bit deeper on the frequent comparison of flu deaths with highway traffic deaths, total US deaths in the Vietnam War, or any variety of raw number comparisons. I’m  working to get at something that feels to be an underlying mis-match in such comparisons.

Part of the challenge is that self-proclaimed epidemiology experts are popping up like Spring daffodils, busy asserting themselves as consummate experts in statistics and government policy while asserting themselves as enforcement authorities. And the Internet has been an amplifier for the echo chambers created by rabble. In short, finding the signal in the noise has become much harder. I can’t recall a time when there has been this much manufacturing and shoveling of confirmation bias around the world. Alas, it’s one supply chain that has grown significantly more robust.

At the heart of the raw number comparisons is a category mistake. Stopping at an equivalence of mortality across all categories for cause of death gives rise the category mistake. Not all causes of death should be considered equal when searching for a course of action that will affect millions – in the case of COVID-19, billions – of people. There are many differentiating factors that could be considered in the case of viral pandemics and traffic deaths. The principle one, in my view, is agency.

I can choose a robust and enjoyable lifestyle that significantly lowers my risk to death due to highway accidents (to use that number for my analysis.) In fact, I have done exactly that. A four mile commute to the office, all on local streets where the highest speed limit is 45 MPH…for exactly 3 blocks. To those that declare “But, many people can’t do this.” my reply is “Maybe.” There will certainly be outliers for a variety of reasons. But in many of these cases, the individuals are nonetheless making choices. Perhaps they don’t want to move or they don’t want to change jobs or they don’t want to up-skill or… There are likely a confluence of many choices in the mix that make it appear they are stuck or trapped. Frequently, even in the outlier cases, when circumstances press hard enough, they “find” opportunities and make changes, perhaps even subsidized by local and federal governments. But that’s a topic I’ll leave for much more qualified bloggers to tackle.

I can make other choices in the form of the car I drive or the route I drive to my destination. I can chose the time of day I drive for errands or the frequency with which I need to run them. I can chose whether to use my smart phone while driving or engage in some other distraction while driving. Or I can choose not to drive at all and take the bus, train, bike, walk, or a combination of any of those.

With a viral infection – as we are learning now – there is virtually no personal agency. The only way to avoid the adverse consequences is to severely curtail our lifestyle. Now. There’s no easing into it. No evening classes at the college annex to up-skill our ability to dodge the virus. No Ecopass that lets us leave the breathing up to someone else. Not much of any choice for replacing a stalled lifestyle with a different one because they’re all stalled.

Which gets me to the thinking behind “Mass transit kills.” It does so because its an efficient vector for transmitting biological infections. The early studies show how quickly COVID-19 spread due to air travel followed by trains, taxis, and buses in crowed urban settings. A fatal car accident, however, is a local event. First responders and surrounding communities are not at risk of death due to the now static car accident. A viral or bacterial outbreak is dynamic and spreads just by virtue of people moving around. Globally, how long would humans have to drive cars before the death toll matched that of the number of deaths that have been attributed to plagues and pandemics throughout history? And historically, plagues and pandemics moved at the speed of rats, mosquitoes, and ox carts. Today, they can move just shy the speed of sound.

Having read close to a couple dozen COVID-19 related research papers (surprisingly, none of them authored by CNN/MSNBC/FOX/CBS/ABC/NBC/BBC et. al.), the chances that we’re approaching a pandemic that won’t offer much of a lead time are increasing. The growth of human population has greatly increased the adjacent possible for animal virus’ to make the jump to humans. The probability of an asymptomatic contagious period combined with lethal morbidity increases as the adjacent possible horizon expands. If such a viral combination were to occur, mass transit will be that virus’ best friend.

My thinking is probably incomplete on this matter, so I welcome your comments.

Strategies for Remote Interviews with Team Candidates

In a recent New York Times column, Adam Grant wrote:

Credentials are overrated, and motivation is underrated. It doesn’t matter how much experience people have if they lack the drive to think creatively, work collaboratively and keep on learning. We’re not just hiring people to do a job today — we’re hiring them to make their team and their organization better tomorrow.

Once upon a time – last century, actually – employers could rely on the conferring of a college degree as evidence of a certain level of competence in the degree subject. In some areas, this is probably still true. Generally speaking, this would apply to the scientific areas of study: chemistry, physics, mathematics, etc. Unfortunately, even these area are becoming suspect as academic rigor is eroded in the interests of removing perceived barriers to this or that special interest group. To be very clear, I’m referring to the importance of thorough and complete understanding of the subject. The mine field that academia has become is indeed rife with self-inflicted and often insurmountable barriers to learning. The egregious rise in the cost of tuition, grade inflation, and credential dilution are but a few examples.

There are other factors in play. The speed at which society moves in the 21st Century is simply too fast for the four-year degree to to have any hope of staying relevant, let alone keeping up. Almost every major university offers free courses in a wide variety of subjects so it is possible for a high school graduate to craft the equivalent of a Bachelors or Masters and complete it for a fraction of the cost and in half the time. Ah, but without having completed the paper chase, how can such an industrious individual establish for a potential employer that they have the requisite competence?

Adam Grant has it right. Credentials are overrated. So how can we assess the quality and potential of team candidates? Grant identifies three key mistakes interviewers make in the interview process.

  1. They ask they wrong kinds of questions.
  2. They focus on the wrong criteria.
  3. They’re overly influenced by the best talkers.

If, as Grant suggests, job interviews are broken than conducting remote job interviews in the midst of a pandemic are significantly more challenging. In this post, I wish to speak to the second mistake identified by Grant and write about what we can do to identify our criteria, what we can do during an interview to elicit information about the candidate’s qualifications, and a strategy for improving the efficacy of remote job interviews.

Identify Important Criteria

For the sake of example, we’ll engage in a little time travel into the future and imagine having hired the perfect product owner candidate. What tasks encountered in your work day are no longer an issue with the new candidate on board? Is the product backlog now well-maintained and in a healthy state? Does the sprint runway extend out 4-5 (or more) sprints? Has a stable sprint velocity emerged (suggesting that the user stories are of higher quality and understood better by the team)? Do conflicts between areas of the business occur less frequently than in the past? Are stakeholders pleased with the results they see at sprint and increment reviews?

If our example were for a scrum master candidate, we would ask ourselves different questions for eliciting important criteria for the position. Is there less conflict among team members? Does the team understand the purpose and value for determining the effort involved to complete a user story? And again, has a stable sprint velocity emerged?

In addition to considering what hasn’t been working well (and therefore illuminating what skills you want a candidate to bring to the table) it is also important to include what has been working. It will not serve the organization if one set of problems are swapped for another. Perhaps, for example, the previous product owner was well liked by the team and helped the team maintain a positive morale, but had a poorly maintained product backlog that prevented a good approximation for a release date. It wouldn’t be much of an improvement if the new product owner kept a healthy product backlog but did so by driving the team as a tyrant might.

Test for Matching Skills

With a good feel for the criteria needed to hire the best candidate you can then craft a strategy for determining how well the candidate’s abilities satisfy your criteria. Prepare tasks for the candidate that will verify congruity between what a candidate says they can do and what they can actually do. One approach, which I use frequently, is to present the candidate with a series of scenarios, each designed to build on how the candidate responded to the previous scenario. While I may only present a candidate 3-4 scenarios, I have several dozen in the queue and present the sequence based on how well the candidates responses to the challenge.

For example, for a scrum master role – a high-touch role that requires consummate communication skills, flexibility, and the ability to solve people problems – I may present an initial scenario as follows:

“I’m going to give you several scenarios. You are free to ask any questions you wish about the scenario and state any assumptions you are making in your responses.

You are being considered for a position as scrum master for a team that is developing a healthcare related web application for use in hospitals. This team is responsible for developing the UI/UX components and works closely with another team responsible for much of the database and middle tier components. As a new scrum master, what questions would you ask of anyone in the organization to help you quickly understand what you need to do to become effective as a scrum master for your team?”

There are many things I would hope to hear in the candidate’s answer. To mention a few, I’d like to hear that they want to speak to the product owner, the stakeholders, and, of course, each of the team members. I’d like to hear that they plan to spend time in information gathering mode rather than work immediately to shape the team into some version of teams they’ve worked with at other jobs. I’d like to hear questions from them about what kinds of metrics does the team use and what have they shown.

There are no right and wrong answers to a scenario like this. Just answers that are better than others. And I don’t expect the candidate to deliver an exhaustively thorough response.

From their responses, I might learn that they are a recipe follower or that they are flexible in adapting to the needs of the business while working to establish good scrum practices. I might learn that they really don’t know scrum at all and are only good at parroting text book examples and jargon. I might hear how they would attempt to leverage several things from previous experience while acknowledging those attempts would be experiments and subject to adaptation based on feedback.

Assuming the candidate responded to the first scenario in a way that scores high marks for satisfying my criteria, I might offer the next scenario as follows:

“Assume you have been serving successfully as scrum master for this team for six months now. The product owner calls the team together and says ‘I need to swap out some of the stories in the sprint for work that marketing wants done before the end of the week.’ As scrum master, how would you respond to this development?”

As with the previous scenario, the candidate’s response would be measured against the criteria I have established for the position. Depending on what I’ve heard, I may continue to offer additional scenarios that build on the candidates developing experience with the scenario scrum team.

This strategy is pursued until I’m satisfied the candidate knows what they claim to know or not. A short interview does not bode well for the candidate. A long interview does.

(I would be interested in hearing about any questions, comments, or creative ways you’ve applied this strategy.)

Determining Effort Value – Tactics

While the concept and practice is straightforward, shifting a team from intuitive guesses about story points to a more deliberate approach for determining effort value (a.k.a. story points) can be a challenge at first. The following approach may help start the process.

  1. Begin by focusing on product backlog items (PBIs) that the team has estimated using their previous approach that are at a 5 or greater. There isn’t much to be gained by applying this approach to PBIs estimated at 1 or 2. PBIs that the team knows are a bigger effort but may not be able to articulate why that is the case are good candidates for learning how to apply this technique.
  2. Ask the team how much time it may take to complete a PBI. While I have written before about the importance of excluding time criteria when determining effort values, this can be a good place to start. It is what teams are most familiar with – for better or worse. Teams usually have not problem throwing out a time: 8 hours, 16 hours, etc.
  3. With the time estimate in hand ask the team:

“If you sit in front of your computer and start the clock, will the PBI be done if you do nothing and the estimated time elapses?”

I would hope the team would answer “No.”

  1. With the answer to the first question in hand, ask the following question:

If the passage of time alone won’t get the PBI work completed, what will you be doing (actions and behaviors) to complete the work?

The conversation that follows from this questions is the basis for determining the effort criteria the team needs to better describe what they will be doing on their way to completing the PBI. The techniques around establishing effort criteria are described in an earlier post.

What to do while on “vacation” during a pandemic.

Build a Torii Gate, of course.

A vacation originally planed for this week in Utah was scrubbed. So a significant pivot was in order. Priorities, plans, and schedules shifted and forward motion was begun once again.

I wanted to build a Torii Gate on the East side of my property for several years. The gate and fence that was there worked well enough so it never made it very far up on the backlog. That changed last fall when the Chinook winds – which are frequent, sudden, and fierce in this part of the country – snapped  the two supporting gate posts. (The same storm also blew off the gate on the North side of the property, but that’s another project.) The gate and fence have been braced up by 2×4’s all winter. Not a good look.

Worked on the hashira (posts) over the winter. They needed to withstand the Chinooks. So, 6′ steel post – 3′ bolted within 3 2x6x10s and 3′ sunk into a concrete base – ought to hold for a while.

Time to begin the outside work.

First post had to be set perfectly. This is after it had set for a few days and most of the supports had been pulled away.

Next, the nuki (lower beam) and the shimagi and kasagi (two upper beams.)

Add a little extra flair trim to the kasagi, stain, and seal.

All that was need to complete the Torii gate part of the gate was the gakuzuka – a small brace in the center between the shimagi and kasagi – with an inscription. The weather intervened and brought us about 9″ of fresh snow.

Weather cleared, snow melted, still self-isolating – back to work to build and install the new swinging gate.

Next, dress up the top of the swinging gate with a pattern to match the fence on the north side of the property.

Finally, add the gakuzuka. The Japanese kanji on the way into the gate is “Love.” Find love here, all ye who enter.

The kanji on the way out through the gate is “Peace.” Take peace with you into the world.

Add an exterior handle crafted from ceder and the gate is done. The street view is quite nice, even before the summer vines and surrounding flowers wake up.

Time now to clean up the work site and do a little path repair.

Update – 2020.07.25

Just following a rain storm and the summer foliage starting to grow back.